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15 June 2008

SENSEX

SENSEX

WHAT IS SENSEX?

Sensex is an abbreviation of the Bombay Exchange Sensitive Index. The benchmark index of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). It is composed of 30 of the largest and most actively-traded stocks on the BSE. Initially compiled in 1986, the Sensex is the oldest stock index in India.

INTRODUCTION

Due to its wide acceptance amongst the Indian investors; SENSEX is regarded to be the pulse of the Indian stock market. As the oldest index in the country, it provides the time series data over a fairly long period of time (From 1979 onwards). Small wonder, the SENSEX has over the years become one of the most prominent brands in the country.

The growth of equity markets in India has been phenomenal in the decade gone by. Right from early nineties the stock market witnessed heightened activity in terms of various bull and bear runs. The Sensex captured all these events in the most judicial manner. One can identify the booms and busts of the Indian stock market through Sensex.

HISTORY

The premier Stock Exchange that pioneered the stock broking activity in India, 128 years of experience seems to be a proud milestone. A lot has changed since 1875 when 318 persons became members of what today is called "The Stock Exchange, Mumbai" by paying a princely amount of Re1.

Since then, the country's capital markets have passed through both good and bad periods. The journey in the 20th century has not been an easy one. Till the decade of eighties, there was no scale to measure the ups and downs in the Indian stock market. The Stock Exchange, Mumbai (BSE) in 1986 came out with a stock index that subsequently became the barometer of the Indian stock market.

BASE YEAR AND BASE VALUE


SENSEX is not only scientifically designed but also based on globally accepted construction and review methodology. First compiled in 1986, SENSEX is a basket of 30 constituent stocks representing a sample of large, liquid and representative companies. The base year of SENSEX is 1978-79 and the base value is 100.

SENSEX CONSTITUENTS AS ON AUGUST 2007

Name

Sector

Adj. Factor

ACC Ltd.

Housing Related

0.60

Ambuja Cements Ltd.

Housing Related

0.65

Bajaj Auto Ltd.

Transport Equipments

0.65

Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd.

Capital Goods

0.35

Bharti Airtel Ltd.

Telecom

0.35

Cipla Ltd.

Healthcare

0.65

Dr Reddy's Laboratories Ltd.

Healthcare

0.75

Grasim Industries Ltd.

Diversified

0.75

HDFC

Finance

0.90

HDFC Bank Ltd.

Finance

0.80

Hindalco Industries Ltd.

Metal,Metal Products & Mining

0.70

Hindustan Unilever Ltd.

FMCG

0.50

ICICI Bank Ltd.

Finance

1.00

Infosys Technologies Ltd.

Information Technology

0.85

ITC Ltd.

FMCG

0.70

Larsen & Toubro Limited

Capital Goods

0.90

Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd.

Transport Equipments

0.80

Maruti Udyog Ltd.

Transport Equipments

0.45

NTPC Ltd.

Power

0.15

ONGC Ltd.

Oil & Gas

0.20

Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd.

Healthcare

0.70

Reliance Communications Limited

Telecom

0.35

Reliance Energy Ltd.

Power

0.70

Reliance Industries Ltd.

Oil & Gas

0.50

Satyam Computer Services Ltd.

Information Technology

0.95

State Bank of India

Finance

0.45

Tata Consultancy Services Limited

Information Technology

0.20

Tata Motors Ltd.

Transport Equipments

0.60

Tata Steel Ltd.

Metal,Metal Products & Mining

0.70

Wipro Ltd.

Information Technology

0.20


SENSEX CALCULATION METHODOLOGY


The Index was initially calculated based on the "Full Market Capitalization" methodology but was shifted to the Free-float methodology with effect from September 1, 2003. The "Free-float Market Capitalization" methodology of index construction is regarded as an industry best practice globally. All major index providers like MSCI, FTSE, STOXX, S&P and Dow Jones use the Free-float methodology.

FREE-FLOAT MARKET CAPITALIZATION


SENSEX is calculated using the "Free-float Market Capitalization" methodology. As per this methodology, the level of index at any point of time reflects the Free-float market value of 30 component stocks relative to a base period. The market capitalization of a company is determined by multiplying the price of its stock by the number of shares issued by the company. This market capitalization is further multiplied by the free-float factor to determine the free-float market capitalization.

The base period of SENSEX is 1978-79 and the base value is 100 index points. This is often indicated by the notation 1978-79=100. The calculation of SENSEX involves dividing the Free-float market capitalization of 30 companies in the Index by a number called the Index Divisor. The Divisor is the only link to the original base period value of the SENSEX. It keeps the Index comparable over time and is the adjustment point for all Index adjustments arising out of corporate actions, replacement of scrips etc. During market hours, prices of the index scrips, at which latest trades are executed, are used by the trading system to calculate SENSEX every 15 seconds and disseminated in real time.

· UNDERSTANDING FREE-FLOAT METHODOLOGY
CONCEPT:

Free-float Methodology refers to an index construction methodology that takes into consideration only the free-float market capitalization of a company for the purpose of index calculation and assigning weight to stocks in Index. Free-float market capitalization is defined as that proportion of total shares issued by the company that are readily available for trading in the market. It generally excludes promoters' holding, government holding, strategic holding and other locked-in shares that will not come to the market for trading in the normal course. In other words, the market capitalization of each company in a Free-float index is reduced to the extent of its readily available shares in the market.

In India, BSE pioneered the concept of Free-float by launching BSE TECk in July 2001 and BANKEX in June 2003. While BSE TECk Index is a TMT benchmark, BANKEX is positioned as a benchmark for the banking sector stocks. SENSEX becomes the third index in India to be based on the globally accepted Free-float Methodology.

DEFINITION OF FREE-FLOAT:

Share holdings held by investors that would not, in the normal course come into the open market for trading are treated as 'Controlling/ Strategic Holdings' and hence not included in free-float. In specific, the following categories of holding are generally excluded from the definition of Free-float:

  • Holdings by founders/directors/ acquirers which has control element
  • Holdings by persons/ bodies with "Controlling Interest"
  • Government holding as promoter/acquirer
  • Holdings through the FDI Route
  • Strategic stakes by private corporate bodies/ individuals
  • Equity held by associate/group companies (cross-holdings)
  • Equity held by Employee Welfare Trusts

Locked-in shares and shares which would not be sold in the open market in normal course. [The remaining shareholders would fall under the Free-float category.]


MAJOR ADVANTAGES OF FREE-FLOAT METHODOLOGY:

· A Free-float index reflects the market trends more rationally as it takes into consideration only those shares that are available for trading in the market.

· Free-float Methodology makes the index more broad-based by reducing the concentration of top few companies in Index. For example, the concentration of top five companies in SENSEX has fallen under the free-float scenario thereby making the SENSEX more diversified and broad-based.

· A Free-float index aids both active and passive investing styles. It aids active managers by enabling them to benchmark their fund returns vis-à-vis investable index. This enables an apple-to-apple comparison thereby facilitating better evaluation of performance of active managers. Being a perfectly replicable portfolio of stocks, a Free-float adjusted index is best suited for the passive managers as it enables them to track the index with the least tracking error.

· Free-float Methodology improves index flexibility in terms of including any stock from the universe of listed stocks. This improves market coverage and sector coverage of the index. For example, under a Full-market capitalization methodology, companies with large market capitalization and low free-float cannot generally be included in the Index because they tend to distort the index by having an undue influence on the index movement. However, under the Free-float Methodology, since only the free-float market capitalization of each company is considered for index calculation, it becomes possible to include such closely held companies in the index while at the same time preventing their undue influence on the index movement.

Globally, the Free-float Methodology of index construction is considered to be an industry best practice and all major index providers like MSCI, FTSE, S&P and STOXX have adopted the same. MSCI, a leading global index provider, shifted all its indices to the Free-float Methodology in 2002. The MSCI India Standard Index, which is followed by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) to track Indian equities, is also based on the Free-float Methodology. NASDAQ-100, the underlying index to the famous Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) - QQQ is based on the Free-float Methodology.

DETERMINING FREE-FLOAT FACTORS OF COMPANIES:

BSE has designed a Free-float format, which is filled and submitted by all index companies on a quarterly basis with the Exchange. The Exchange determines the Free-float factor for each company based on the detailed information submitted by the companies in the prescribed format. Free-float factor is a multiple with which the total market capitalization of a company is adjusted to arrive at the Free-float market capitalization. Once the Free-float of a company is determined, it is rounded-off to the higher multiple of 5 and each company is categorized into one of the 20 bands given below. A Free-float factor of say 0.55 means that only 55% of the market capitalization of the company will be considered for index calculation.

FREE-FLOAT BANDS:

% Free-Float

Free-Float Factor

% Free-Float

Free-Float Factor

>0 – 5%

0.05

>50 – 55%

0.55

>5 – 10%

0.10

>55 – 60%

0.60

>10 – 15%

0.15

>60 – 65%

0.65

>15 – 20%

0.20

>65 – 70%

0.70

>20 – 25%

0.25

>70 – 75%

0.75

>25 – 30%

0.30

>75 – 80%

0.80

>30 – 35%

0.35

>80 – 85%

0.85

>35 – 40%

0.40

>85 – 90%

0.90

>40 – 45%

0.45

>90 – 95%

0.95

>45 – 50%

0.50

>95 – 100%

1.00



INDEX CLOSURE ALGORITHM

The closing SENSEX on any trading day is computed taking the weighted average of all the trades on SENSEX constituents in the last 30 minutes of trading session. If a SENSEX constituent has not traded in the last 30 minutes, the last traded price is taken for computation of the Index closure. If a SENSEX constituent has not traded at all in a day, then its last day's closing price is taken for computation of Index closure. The use of Index Closure Algorithm prevents any intentional manipulation of the closing index value.


MAINTENANCE OF SENSEX

One of the important aspects of maintaining continuity with the past is to update the base year average. The base year value adjustment ensures that replacement of stocks in Index, additional issue of capital and other corporate announcements like 'rights issue' etc. do not destroy the historical value of the index. The beauty of maintenance lies in the fact that adjustments for corporate actions in the Index should not per se affect the index values.

The Index Cell of the exchange does the day-to-day maintenance of the index within the broad index policy framework set by the Index Committee. The Index Cell ensures that SENSEX and all the other BSE indices maintain their benchmark properties by striking a delicate balance between frequent replacements in index and maintaining its historical continuity. The Index Committee of the Exchange comprises of experts on capital markets from all major market segments. They include Academicians, Fund-managers from leading Mutual Funds, Finance-Journalists, Market Participants, Independent Governing Board members, and Exchange administration.


ON-LINE COMPUTATION OF THE INDEX:

During market hours, prices of the index scrip’s, at which trades are executed, are automatically used by the trading computer to calculate the SENSEX every 15 seconds and continuously updated on all trading workstations connected to the BSE trading computer in real time.


ADJUSTMENT FOR BONUS, RIGHTS AND NEWLY ISSUED CAPITAL:

The arithmetic calculation involved in calculating SENSEX is simple, but problem arises when one of the component stocks pays a bonus or issues rights shares. If no adjustments were made, a discontinuity would arise between the current value of the index and its previous value despite the non-occurrence of any economic activity of substance. At the Index Cell of the Exchange, the base value is adjusted, which is used to alter market capitalization of the component stocks to arrive at the SENSEX value.

The Index Cell of the Exchange keeps a close watch on the events that might affect the index on a regular basis and carries out daily maintenance of all the 14 Indices.

· ADJUSTMENTS FOR RIGHTS ISSUES:
When a company, included in the compilation of the index, issues right shares, the free-float market capitalisation of that company is increased by the number of additional shares issued based on the theoretical (ex-right) price. An offsetting or proportionate adjustment is then made to the Base Market Capitalisation (see 'Base Market Capitalisation Adjustment' below).

· ADJUSTMENTS FOR BONUS ISSUE:
When a company, included in the compilation of the index, issues bonus shares, the market capitalisation of that company does not undergo any change. Therefore, there is no change in the Base Market Capitalisation, only the 'number of shares' in the formula is updated.

· OTHER ISSUES:
Base Market Capitalisation Adjustment is required when new shares are issued by way of conversion of debentures, mergers, spin-offs etc. or when equity is reduced by way of buy-back of shares, corporate restructuring etc.

BASE MARKET CAPITALISATION ADJUSTMENT:

THE FORMULA FOR ADJUSTING THE BASE MARKET CAPITALISATION IS AS FOLLOWS:

New Market Capitalisation

New Base Market Capitalisation

=

Old Base Market Capitalisation

x

------------------------

Old Market Capitalisation

To illustrate, suppose a company issues right shares which increases the market capitalisation of the shares of that company by say, Rs.100 crores. The existing Base Market Capitalisation (Old Base Market Capitalisation), say, is Rs.2450 crores and the aggregate market capitalisation of all the shares included in the index before the right issue is made is, say Rs.4781 crores. The "New Base Market Capitalisation” will then be:

2450 x (4781+100)

--------------------------

=

Rs.2501.24 crores

4781

This figure of 2501.24 will be used as the Base Market Capitalisation for calculating the index number from then onwards till the next base change becomes necessary.

SENSEX - SCRIP SELECTION CRITERIA:

The general guidelines for selection of constituents in SENSEX are as follows:

1. Listed History: The scrip should have a listing history of at least 3 months at BSE. Exception may be considered if full market capitalization of a newly listed company ranks among top 10 in the list of BSE universe. In case, a company is listed on account of merger/ demerger/ amalgamation, minimum listing history would not be required.

2. Trading Frequency: The scrip should have been traded on each and every trading day in the last three months. Exceptions can be made for extreme reasons like scrip suspension etc.

3. Final Rank: The scrip should figure in the top 100 companies listed by final rank. The final rank is arrived at by assigning 75% weight age to the rank on the basis of three-month average full market capitalization and 25% weightage to the liquidity rank based on three-month average daily turnover & three-month average impact cost.

4. Market Capitalization Weightage: The weightage of each scrip in SENSEX based on three-month average free-float market capitalisation should be at least 0.5% of the Index.

5. Industry Representation: Scrip selection would generally take into account a balanced representation of the listed companies in the universe of BSE.

6. Track Record: In the opinion of the Committee, the company should have an acceptable track record.

INDEX REVIEW FREQUENCY:

The Index Committee meets every quarter to discuss index related issues. In case of a revision in the Index constituents, the announcement of the incoming and outgoing scrips is made six weeks in advance of the actual implementation of the revision of the Index.

HISTORY OF REPLACEMENT OF SCRIPS IN SENSEX

Date

Outgoing Scrips

Replaced by

01.01.1986

Bombay Burmah

Voltas

Asian Cables

Peico

Crompton Greaves

Premier Auto.

Scinda

G.E.Shipping

03.08.1992

Zenith Ltd.

Bharat Forge

19.08.1996

Ballarpur Inds.

Arvind Mills

Bharat Forge

Bajaj Auto

Bombay Dyeing

BHEL

Ceat Tyres

BSES

Century Text.

Colgate

GSFC

Guj. Amb. Cement

Hind. Motors

HPCL

Indian Organic

ICICI

Indian Rayon

IDBI

Kirloskar Cummins

IPCL

Mukand Iron

MTNL

Phlips

Ranbaxy Lab.

Premier Auto

State Bank of India

Siemens

Steel Authority of India

Voltas

Tata Chem

16.11.1998

Arvind Mills

Castrol

G. E. Shipping

Infosys Technologies

IPCL

NIIT Ltd.

Steel Authority of India

Novartis

10.04.2000

I.D.B.I

Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories

Indian Hotels

Reliance Petroleum

Tata Chem

Satyam Computers

Tata Power

Zee Telefilms

08.01.2001

Novartis

Cipla Ltd.

07.01.2002

NIIT Ltd.

HCL Technologies

Mahindra & Mahindra

Hero Honda Motors Ltd.

31.05.2002

ICICI Ltd.

ICICI Bank Ltd.

10.10.2002

Reliance Petroleum Ltd.

HDFC Ltd.

10.11.2003

Castrol India Ltd.

Bharti-Tele-Ventures Ltd.

Colgate Palomive (India) Ltd.

HDFC Bank Ltd.

Glaxo Smithkline Pharma. Ltd.

ONGC Ltd.

HCL Technologies Ltd.

Tata Power Company Ltd.

Nestle (India) Ltd.

Wipro Ltd.

19.05.2004

Larsen & Toubro Ltd.

Maruti Udyog Ltd.

27.09.2004

Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd.

Larsen & Toubro Ltd.

06.06.2005

Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd.

National Thermal Power Corpn. Ltd.

Zee Telefilms Ltd.

Tata Consultancy Services Ltd.

12.06.2006

Tata Power Ltd.

Reliance Communication Ventures Ltd.

09.07.2007

Hero Honda Motors Ltd.

Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd.


SENSEX MILESTONES

The Sensex crossed the 1,000 mark on July 25, 1990;

The 2,000 mark on January 15, 1992;

The 3,000 mark on February 29, 1992;

The 4,000 mark on March 30, 1992;

The 5,000 mark on October 11, 1999;

The 6,000 mark on January 2, 2004;

The 7,000 mark on June 21, 2005;

The 8,000 mark on September 8, 2005;

The 9,000 mark on December 09, 2005;

And finally the historic 10,000 mark on February 7, 2006.

It created another landmark when it touched 11,000 on March 27, 2006.

To reach from the 11,000 mark to the 12,000 mark only took 19 working days, the shortest time interval for a 1000 points climb in BSE Sensex history

On 6th July 2007 the sensex crossed the landmark 15,000 mark. Although the move from 14,000 to 15,000 took a long time, however the investors are sure that the Bull Run is going to continue at a good pace for some time in the future.

HERE IS A TIMELINE ON THE RISE AND RISE OF THE SENSEX THROUGH INDIAN STOCK MARKET HISTORY.

  • 1000, July 25, 1990 - On July 25, 1990, the Sensex touched the four-digit figure for the first time and closed at 1,001 in the wake of a good monsoon and excellent corporate results.
  • 2000, January 15, 1992 - On January 15, 1992, the Sensex crossed the 2,000-mark and closed at 2,020 followed by the liberal economic policy initiatives undertaken by the then finance minister and current Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh.
  • 3000, February 29, 1992 - On February 29, 1992, the Sensex surged past the 3000 mark in the wake of the market-friendly Budget announced by the then Finance Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh.
  • 4000, March 30, 1992 - On March 30, 1992, the Sensex crossed the 4,000-mark and closed at 4,091 on the expectations of a liberal export-import policy. It was then that the Harshad Mehta scam hit the markets and Sensex witnessed unabated selling.
  • 5000, October 11, 1999 - On October 8, 1999, the Sensex crossed the 5,000-mark as the BJP-led coalition won the majority in the 13th Lok Sabha election.
  • 6000, February 11, 2000 - On February 11, 2000, the infotech boom helped the Sensex to cross the 6,000-mark and hit and all time high of 6,006.
  • 7000, June 21, 2005 - On June 20, 2005, the news of the settlement between the Ambani brothers boosted investor sentiments and the scrips of RIL, Reliance Energy, Reliance Capital and IPCL made huge gains. This helped the Sensex crossed 7,000 points for the first time.
  • 8000, September 8, 2005 - On September 8, 2005, the Bombay Stock Exchange's benchmark 30-share index -- the Sensex -- crossed the 8000 level following brisk buying by foreign and domestic funds in early trading.
  • 9000, December 09, 2005 - The Sensex on November 28, 2005 crossed 9000 to touch 9000.32 points during mid-session at the Bombay Stock Exchange on the back of frantic buying spree by foreign institutional investors and well supported by local operators as well as retail investors.
  • 10,000, February 7, 2006 - The Sensex on February 6, 2006 touched 10,003 points during mid-session. The Sensex finally closed above the 10K-mark on February 7, 2006.
  • 11,000, March 27, 2006 - The Sensex on March 21, 2006 crossed 11,000 and touched a life-time peak of 11,001 points during mid-session at the Bombay Stock Exchange for the first time. However, it was on March 27, 2006 that the Sensex first closed at over 11,000 points.
  • 12,000, April 20, 2006 - The Sensex on April 20, 2006 crossed 12,000 and touched a life-time peak of 12,004 points during mid-session at the Bombay Stock Exchange for the first time.
  • 13,000, October 30, 2006 - The Sensex on October 30, 2006 crossed 13,000 and still riding high at the Bombay Stock Exchange for the first time. It took 135 days to reach 13,000 from 12,000. And 124 days to reach 13,000 from 12,500. On 30th October 2006 it touched a peak of 13,039.36 & closed at 13,024.26.
  • 14,000, December 5, 2006 - The Sensex on December 5, 2006 crossed 14,000 and touched a life-time peak of 14028 at 9.58AM (IST) while opening for the day December 5, 2006.
  • 15,000, July 6, 2007- The Sensex on July 6, 2007 crossed another milestone and reached a magic figure of 15,000. it took almost 7 month and 1 day to touch such a historic milestone.

THE GREATEST LOWS OF SENSEX:

On May 22, 2006, the Sensex plunged by a whopping 1100 points during intra-day trading, leading to the suspension of trading for the first time since May 17, 2004. The volatility of the Sensex had caused investors to lose Rs 6 lakh crore ($131 billion) within seven trading sessions. The Finance Minister of India, P. Chidambaram, made an unscheduled press statement when trading was suspended to assure investors that nothing was wrong with the fundamentals of the economy, and advised retail investors to stay invested. When trading resumed after the reassurances of the Reserve Bank of India and the Securities and Exchange Board of India, the Sensex managed to move up 700 points, still 450 points in the red. This is the largest ever intra-day crash (in points terms) in the history of the Sensex.The Sensex eventually recovered from the volatility, and on October 16, 2006, the Sensex closed at an all-time high of 12,928.18 with an intra-day high of 12,953.76. This was a result of increased confidence in the economy and reports that India's manufacturing sector grew by 11.1% in August 2006.

On July 23, 2007, the Sensex touched a new high of 15,733 points. The index touched the 15,828.98 mark the very next day. On July 27, 2007 the Sensex witnessed a huge correction because of selling by Foreign Institutional Investors and global queues to come back to 15,160 points by noon. Following global queues and heavy selling in the International markets, the BSE Sensex fell by 615 points in a single day on August 1, 2007, the third such biggest fall in its history. Following the same trend, the BSE Sensex fell by 643 points in a single day on August 16, 2007, which is the biggest fall since April, 2007 and the second biggest

ever (absolute terms) in history. It is predicted to fall by about 1000 points for the first time on 25 December 2007.

COMPANIES IN SENSEX SINCE ITS INCEPTION IN 1986 (BASELINED TO 1979, AS OF ON JANUARY 1, 2007)

CODE

NAME

SECTOR

ADJ FACTOR

500410

ACC

Cement

0.65

500490

Bajaj Auto

Automobiles (2/3 wheelers)

0.70

500103

BHEL

Capital Goods

0.35

532454

Bharti Airtel

Telecom and Retail

0.35

500087

Cipla

Pharma

0.65

500124

Dr. Reddy's Laboratories

Pharma

0.75

500300

Grasim Industries

Diversified

0.75

500425

Gujarat Ambuja Cements

Cement

0.80

500010

HDFC

Finance

0.90

500180

HDFC Bank

Finance

0.80

500182

Hero Honda Motors

Automobile (2 wheelers)

0.50

500440

Hindalco Industries

Metal, Metal Products & Mining

0.75

500696

Hindustan Lever Limited

FMCG

0.50

532174

ICICI Bank

Banking & Finance

1.00

500209

Infosys

Information Technology

0.80

500875

ITC Limited

FMCG

0.70

500510

Larsen & Toubro

Capital Goods & Construction.

0.90

532500

Maruti Udyog

Automobiles

0.40

532555

NTPC

Power

0.15

500312

ONGC

Oil & Gas

0.20

500359

Ranbaxy Laboratories

Pharma

0.70

532712

Reliance Communications

Telecom

0.35

500390

Reliance Energy

Power

0.75

500325

Reliance Industries

Diversified

0.55

500376

Satyam Computer Services

Information Technology

0.95

500112

State Bank of India

Banking & Finance

0.45

532540

Tata Consultancy Services

Information Technology

0.20

500570

Tata Motors

Automobiles

0.60

500470

Tata Steel

Metal, Metal Products & Mining

0.70

507685

Wipro

Information Technology

0.20

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